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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 17 July 21
COAL PRICES TRADE AT DECADE HIGH OF $140 PER TONNE, HERE ARE SOME FACTORS AT PLAY: CNBC-TV18
Coal prices are trading at $140 per tonne. In the last one week, coal has seen more than 8 percent gains; the last one month has seen 24 percent ju ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
U.S. FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION FELL BY 9% IN 2020, THE LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 30 YEARS - EIA
U.S. fossil fuel consumption fell by 9% in 2020, the lowest level in nearly 30 years
In 2020, total consumption of fossil fuels in t ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
IN 2020, U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1965 - EIA
U.S. coal production totaled 535 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, a 24% decrease from the 706 MMst mined in 2019 and the lowest level of coal pro ...
Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and de ...
Tuesday, 13 July 21
JAPAN STILL SEEKING TO EXPLOIT COAL POWER LOOPHOLES - IEEFA
JBIC wants to continue burdening developing nations with its expensive coal-fired power technology
Japan is continuing to push its expensive c ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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