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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 11 July 21
COAL SHOWS ITS STAYING POWER AS ECONOMIES BOUNCE BACK - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Coal use is surging in some of the world’s largest economies as electricity demand rebounds from the pandemic, illustrating the challenges to ...
Sunday, 11 July 21
ROBUST CHINA COAL DEMAND AMID AUSTRALIA IMPORT BAN FUELS PRICE RALLY - REUTERS
Seaborne coal has become a quiet winner among energy commodities, lacking the attention of higher-profile crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...
Saturday, 10 July 21
OVERESTIMATED LCOES OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CREATE A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - IEEFA
Massive stranded asset risk detrimentally affects the financial and power distribution
India’s future coal-fired power project pipeline ...
Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from ...
Friday, 09 July 21
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. INVITES BIDS FOR 1.86 MILLION TONS OF COAL OF 5600 & 4000 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 280,000 – 300,000 MT of Min. ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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