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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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