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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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