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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 30 June 21
BUMA SIGNED MINING AGREEMENT WITH ADARO
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into an agreement for the p ...
Wednesday, 30 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The strong freight performance since the beginning of year has continued for the dry bulk market with earnings being at the highest level in over a ...
Monday, 28 June 21
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA THREATENS TO REVOKE 2,350 MINING BUSINESS PERMITS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said that the revocation of mining business permits was in accordance with President Jokowi's inst ...
Sunday, 27 June 21
INDONESIA'S STATE-OWNED UTILITY PLN'S 2060 NET ZERO AMBITION NOT WITHOUT FLAWS AND GAPS - IEEFA
Indonesia on the right emissions reduction pathway but same old coal stories persist
Recent announcements by Indonesia’s state-owned uti ...
Saturday, 26 June 21
COAL PRICES HIT DECADE HIGH DESPITE EFFORTS TO WEAN THE WORLD OFF CARBON - WSJ
Rebounding electricity usage and scanty rainfall in China have added fuel to the rally
Coal prices have climbed to their highest lev ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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