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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 30 June 21
BUMA SIGNED MINING AGREEMENT WITH ADARO
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into an agreement for the p ...
Wednesday, 30 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The strong freight performance since the beginning of year has continued for the dry bulk market with earnings being at the highest level in over a ...
Monday, 28 June 21
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA THREATENS TO REVOKE 2,350 MINING BUSINESS PERMITS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said that the revocation of mining business permits was in accordance with President Jokowi's inst ...
Sunday, 27 June 21
INDONESIA'S STATE-OWNED UTILITY PLN'S 2060 NET ZERO AMBITION NOT WITHOUT FLAWS AND GAPS - IEEFA
Indonesia on the right emissions reduction pathway but same old coal stories persist
Recent announcements by Indonesia’s state-owned uti ...
Saturday, 26 June 21
COAL PRICES HIT DECADE HIGH DESPITE EFFORTS TO WEAN THE WORLD OFF CARBON - WSJ
Rebounding electricity usage and scanty rainfall in China have added fuel to the rally
Coal prices have climbed to their highest lev ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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