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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 30 June 21
BUMA SIGNED MINING AGREEMENT WITH ADARO
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into an agreement for the p ...
Wednesday, 30 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The strong freight performance since the beginning of year has continued for the dry bulk market with earnings being at the highest level in over a ...
Monday, 28 June 21
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA THREATENS TO REVOKE 2,350 MINING BUSINESS PERMITS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said that the revocation of mining business permits was in accordance with President Jokowi's inst ...
Sunday, 27 June 21
INDONESIA'S STATE-OWNED UTILITY PLN'S 2060 NET ZERO AMBITION NOT WITHOUT FLAWS AND GAPS - IEEFA
Indonesia on the right emissions reduction pathway but same old coal stories persist
Recent announcements by Indonesia’s state-owned uti ...
Saturday, 26 June 21
COAL PRICES HIT DECADE HIGH DESPITE EFFORTS TO WEAN THE WORLD OFF CARBON - WSJ
Rebounding electricity usage and scanty rainfall in China have added fuel to the rally
Coal prices have climbed to their highest lev ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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