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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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