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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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