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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 26 June 21
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 480,000 MT OF COAL PER ANNUM
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 480,000 MT of NCV 1 Min. 5,600 (Spec 1) /Min. 5,0 ...
Thursday, 24 June 21
FEBRUARY'S INCREASE IN COAL-FIRED ELECTRIC GENERATION REDUCED U.S. COAL STOCKPILES - EIA
Coal stockpiles at U.S. power plants decreased significantly from December 2020 to February 2021, including a draw of nearly 16 million tons in Feb ...
Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong ma ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL TRADE; CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade.
Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12 ...
Wednesday, 16 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“While approaching the second half of the year and summer season is just around the corner, COVID vaccination programs are steadily moving fo ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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