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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 26 June 21
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 480,000 MT OF COAL PER ANNUM
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 480,000 MT of NCV 1 Min. 5,600 (Spec 1) /Min. 5,0 ...
Thursday, 24 June 21
FEBRUARY'S INCREASE IN COAL-FIRED ELECTRIC GENERATION REDUCED U.S. COAL STOCKPILES - EIA
Coal stockpiles at U.S. power plants decreased significantly from December 2020 to February 2021, including a draw of nearly 16 million tons in Feb ...
Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong ma ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL TRADE; CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade.
Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12 ...
Wednesday, 16 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“While approaching the second half of the year and summer season is just around the corner, COVID vaccination programs are steadily moving fo ...
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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