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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 26 June 21
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 480,000 MT OF COAL PER ANNUM
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 480,000 MT of NCV 1 Min. 5,600 (Spec 1) /Min. 5,0 ...
Thursday, 24 June 21
FEBRUARY'S INCREASE IN COAL-FIRED ELECTRIC GENERATION REDUCED U.S. COAL STOCKPILES - EIA
Coal stockpiles at U.S. power plants decreased significantly from December 2020 to February 2021, including a draw of nearly 16 million tons in Feb ...
Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong ma ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL TRADE; CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade.
Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12 ...
Wednesday, 16 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“While approaching the second half of the year and summer season is just around the corner, COVID vaccination programs are steadily moving fo ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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