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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 28 July 21
IN THE PHILIPPINES, COAL’S DEMISE MAKES WAY FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY BOOM - IEEFA
Imported gas lock-in could undermine the economic benefits of a clean energy transition
The Philippines’ energy sector is on t ...
Wednesday, 28 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during this first half of the year, we continue to come across surprises and new restrictions which are trembling ...
Saturday, 24 July 21
UNDERSTANDING INDIA'S LATEST PEAK POWER DEMAND RECORD - IEEFA
Ramping up solar will be crucial as peak power demand hits during the day
At around noon on 7 July 2021, India’s instantaneous ...
Wednesday, 21 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry Buk Sales and Purchase activity has heated up during 2021, reaching record high levels during the first half of the year. The increased interes ...
Monday, 19 July 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 6.4 PCT IN H1 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output climbed 6.4 percent year on year to 1.95 billion tonnes in the first six months of the year, official data showed.
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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