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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
Thursday, 12 August 21
ONLY 3 VLCCS SOLD FOR DEMOLITION IN 2021 AS SECONDHAND PRICES TEMPT - BIMCO
During the first seven months of 2021, only three actively trading Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have been sold for demolition. The current mar ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
U.S: EIA EXPECTS COAL EXPORTS TO TOTAL 90 MMST IN 2021, 30% INCREASE FROM 2020
Coal production in EIA's forecast totals 607 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, an increase of 13% over 2020.
EIA is also ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Energy is at the core of the global climate dialogue as the climate challenge is essentially an energy challenge. Policy experts around the world a ...
Tuesday, 10 August 21
34 INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES TEMPORARILY BANNED FOR COAL EXPORTS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has imposed sanctions in the form of a coal export ban for 34 coal companies as reported by CNB ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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