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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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