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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 09 August 21
AIIB MAY OFFICIALLY END COAL FINANCING IN 2022 - CHINA DAILY
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may officially rule out coal projects if it updates its energy strategy next year, after shunning funding ...
Monday, 09 August 21
CHINA COAL INVENTORY THINS AMID PEAK POWER DEMAND- STATE MEDIA : REUTERS
China’s coal inventories have dropped to near historic lows since August due to peak summer electricity demand and transportation bottlenecks ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGED TO A FRESH RECORD HIGH OF USD 130.99 A TON IN AUGUST 2021
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) surged to a fresh record high of USD 130.99 a ton in August 2021.
The ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Unlike the Dry Bulk and Container sectors where freight rates have surged into 2021, the tankers market continues to experience lackluster earnings ...
Sunday, 01 August 21
SEABORNE HARD COAL TRADE IN 2020 DECREASED BY 149 MILLION MT, OR 12.1%, TO 1,083 MILLION MT - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- Reduced coal-fired power plant fleet secures Germany’s power supply in severe winter of 2020/2021; little wind availability and hence stron ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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