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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
KOMIPO TO BUY 1.56 MILLION TONS OF 5600 NAR COAL OF AUSTRALIA OR SOUTH AFRICAN ORIGIN FOR 2022 - 2024
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the summer season is coming to an end, the dry bulk market continues to rally. The confidence that the outstanding freight market performance ha ...
Monday, 30 August 21
68% OF U.S. COAL FLEET RETIREMENTS SINCE 2011 WERE PLANTS FUELED BY BITUMINOUS COAL - EIA
In 2011, the United States had 317.6 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired electric generation capacity. About 88.7 GW of that capacity was retired in the d ...
Friday, 27 August 21
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COAL'S MASSIVE RALLY AND NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK - CNBCTV18
Australia’s thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has surged over 100 percent this year to trade above $16 ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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