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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of col ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Planning Commission, India
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- The University of Queensland
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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