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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Wednesday, 06 October 21
EUROPEAN COAL FUTURES CLIMB TO 13-YEAR PEAK - REUTERS
European coal futures rose to a 13-year high and physical thermal coal prices were at record highs as rallying gas prices and strong Asian demand f ...
Tuesday, 05 October 21
CAPESIZE MARKET WAS IN A STEEP CLIMB FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The Capesize market was in a steep climb for most of this week as it reached a pinnacle of $74,786 Wednesday before stalling, regather ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL: AUSTRALIA’S COAL ERA IS OVER - YAHOO!FINANCE
As the fringe of Australian politics strives to pump up the coal industry, facts show that coal production has started its long run decline.
&n ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
SURGING COAL PRICES SPLIT ASIAN BUYERS INTO RICH AND POOR - REUTERS
As seaborne coal in Asia trades at, or near, record highs, there are early signs of demand destruction, especially among price-sensitive buyers suc ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker Asset values have surprised to the upside, despite the downward pressure on the freight market. Tanker rates have been hovering close to the ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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