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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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