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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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