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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
Thursday, 12 August 21
ONLY 3 VLCCS SOLD FOR DEMOLITION IN 2021 AS SECONDHAND PRICES TEMPT - BIMCO
During the first seven months of 2021, only three actively trading Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have been sold for demolition. The current mar ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
U.S: EIA EXPECTS COAL EXPORTS TO TOTAL 90 MMST IN 2021, 30% INCREASE FROM 2020
Coal production in EIA's forecast totals 607 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, an increase of 13% over 2020.
EIA is also ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Energy is at the core of the global climate dialogue as the climate challenge is essentially an energy challenge. Policy experts around the world a ...
Tuesday, 10 August 21
34 INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES TEMPORARILY BANNED FOR COAL EXPORTS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has imposed sanctions in the form of a coal export ban for 34 coal companies as reported by CNB ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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