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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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