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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch RatingsRising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market  demand  was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption  growth, surged by  23.9%  yoy in  1Q21.Consumption  from  the  tertiary  sector  and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
 
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the  industrial  sector’s 15.3% increase  and  the  tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand  from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas. 
 
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years  due  to  the  fast  development of  big  data, cloud computing  and internet  of things  sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector. 
 
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power  generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output  increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total  power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter. 
 
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8%  in 1Q21,  after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China  added  23.5GW in power  capacity  in  1Q21,  55% of which  were  non-fossil  fuels,  including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21. 
 
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met  environmental protection  requirements This  will ensure a  stable  power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
 
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up  by  10  hours from1Q19.  Yunnan,  Sichuan  and  Jiangsu  were the  top-three provinces  with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
 
Thermal  and  nuclear  power UH  surged by  165  and  218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth,  higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.   
Thermal  power  capacity installation rose by 10.6GW  in  1Q21, including  4.77GW  coal-fired  power and  2.95GW  gas-fired  power,  some  of  which  were  used for peak shaving. We  expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing  for renewable  energy to achieve carbon  neutrality by  2060.Generation  capex  in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex  contribution from thermal  power fell to  10.1%  in 1Q21, from 10.5%  in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
 
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6%  yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end  April-2021. High  coal  prices  will  squeeze  power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China


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