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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Monday, 09 August 21
AIIB MAY OFFICIALLY END COAL FINANCING IN 2022 - CHINA DAILY
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may officially rule out coal projects if it updates its energy strategy next year, after shunning funding ...
Monday, 09 August 21
CHINA COAL INVENTORY THINS AMID PEAK POWER DEMAND- STATE MEDIA : REUTERS
China’s coal inventories have dropped to near historic lows since August due to peak summer electricity demand and transportation bottlenecks ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGED TO A FRESH RECORD HIGH OF USD 130.99 A TON IN AUGUST 2021
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) surged to a fresh record high of USD 130.99 a ton in August 2021.
The ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Unlike the Dry Bulk and Container sectors where freight rates have surged into 2021, the tankers market continues to experience lackluster earnings ...
Sunday, 01 August 21
SEABORNE HARD COAL TRADE IN 2020 DECREASED BY 149 MILLION MT, OR 12.1%, TO 1,083 MILLION MT - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- Reduced coal-fired power plant fleet secures Germany’s power supply in severe winter of 2020/2021; little wind availability and hence stron ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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