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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
WHY ARE LNG SHIPPING STOCKS RESILIENT? - DREWRY
LNG shipping stocks are proving resilient despite uncertainties about growth in global GDP, high inflation and the ongoing geopolitical crisis caus ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SPOT AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL HAS SURGED, BUT CONTRACT PRICE IS KEY - REUTERS
The spot price of Australian thermal coal is higher than that of coking coal, an unprecedented situation that highlights just how the global market ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SHANXI PROVINCE RAISES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT TO 1.3 BILLION TONS TO ENSURE CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY - GLOBAL TIMES
North China’s Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, recently announced a move to increase its annual coal production output by 107 ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGH- AND LOW-GRADE THERMAL COAL PRICES IN APAC TO NARROW - FITCH RATINGS
Prices between high- and low-grade thermal coal in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have diverged since late March 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects the gap to na ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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