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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Saturday, 11 June 22
AIMTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND AWARDS
Press Release: The prestigious AIMTEK International Conference and Awards concluded successfully on June 7th, 2022 at Radisson Blu, Yas Island Abu ...
Thursday, 26 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The newbuilding market activity has been significantly positive from a dry bulk owner perspective during the first half of 2022. Indeed, the contra ...
Wednesday, 18 May 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPPED 4.42% IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for May delivery drops 4.42 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Referen ...
Thursday, 12 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Almost through half of the year, the overall shipping market continues to show signs of healthiness, after plenty of festivities and holidays that ...
Wednesday, 27 April 22
EUROPEAN UNION'S LNG IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
In 2021, the European Union (27) was the third largest seaborne importer of LNG in the world, with a 15.8% share.
It followed Mainla ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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