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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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