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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Thursday, 30 June 22
INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL COAL SUPPLY CHAIN TO HIT $115 BN IN 2022, LED BY CHINA AND INDIA - BUSINESS LINE
At over $80 billion, China and India are anticipated to make up the bulk of global coal investment in 2022, says IEA.
The investment ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
LNG MARKET REMAINS TIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG market remains tight currently, mainly driven by the US LNG outage from the recent fire in Freeport LNG terminal together with the recent fall ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 & ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
APAC CORPORATE SECTOR OUTLOOKS SHIFT AMID GLOBAL SHOCKS - FITCH RATINGS’
Fitch Ratings’ mid-2022 corporate sector outlook review revealed that the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region saw the largest number of sector outlook ...
Thursday, 16 June 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Picking up from my last insight in March, on the early days of the invasion, it's worth pointing out the way that the fast-paced working enviro ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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