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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Monday, 04 July 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIGHTLY DOWN IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for July delivery drops 1.52 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Refere ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its g ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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