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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Wednesday, 13 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Taking the previous market insight a step further, market sentiment remains bullish regarding the overall ROI of scrubbers, facing tailwinds from a ...
Friday, 08 July 22
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICE BREAKS AGAIN LEVEL US$ 400/TON!, UP AROUND 4% - CNBC INDONESIA
Coal prices shot up again and crossed the level of US$ 400 per ton. On Thursday (7/7/2022) trading, the selling price of August contract closed at ...
Friday, 08 July 22
INDONESIA MULLS MORE FREQUENT SETTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL REFERENCE PRICE - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering setting its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price every two weeks instead of monthly, a senior trade ministry offici ...
Friday, 08 July 22
BUNKER PRICES EXPECTED TO RECOVER LOST GROUND NEXT WEEK - SERGEY IVANOV, MABUX
Over the Week 27, the world bunker indices showed a sharp decline, primarily due to the fall in oil prices on July 05. The 380 HSFO index fell by 5 ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
NTPC MINES 61% MORE COAL AT 4.22 MN METRIC TONNES IN APRIL-JUNE: PTI
State-owned power giant NTPC on Tuesday said that its coal output grew by 61 per cent to Rs 42.40 lakh metric tonnes in April-June quarter from 26. ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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