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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
WHY SHIPPING MIGHT BE ABOUT TO GET A LITTLE BIT SLOWER - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
If shipping is the beating heart of global trade, its pulse is about to get slower.
Faced with uncertainty about which fuels to use in the long ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
GERMANY'S INCREASED COAL, OIL USE WILL BE TEMPORARY, SCHOLZ SAYS - CNBC
Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany’s decision to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to relieve energy shortages because of the war i ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
INDONESIA REMOVES PALM OIL EXPORT LEVY UNTIL AUG. 31 - REUTERS
Indonesia has scrapped its export levy for all palm oil products until Aug. 31 in a fresh attempt to boost exports and ease high inventories, finan ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE DAILY COAL OUTPUT JUMPS ON PEAK SUMMER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in June rose 6.6 per cent from a month earlier as miners cranked up output ahead of peak summer temperatures, when ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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