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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
CAP RUSSIA'S OIL PRICE NOW - PROJECT SYNDICATE
Though the price of oil has declined in recent weeks, it is still through the roof, filtering through to gasoline prices, and causing economic and ...
Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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