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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Friday, 29 July 22
GLENCORE TO SUPPLY COAL TO NIPPON STEEL AT $375 PER TON - BLOOMBERG
Glencore Plc, agreed to supply coal to Nippon Steel at one of the highest prices ever paid by the Japan Bloomberg reported on July 27.
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Friday, 29 July 22
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IS SET TO RETURN TO ITS ALL-TIME HIGH IN 2022 - IEA
The world’s consumption of coal is set to rise slightly in 2022, taking it back to the record level it reached nearly a decade ago, according ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
CREW FAMILIARISATION IS CRITICAL WHEN TAKING OVER A VESSEL - WEST P&I CLUB
Knowledge to Elevate
When a vessel changes ownership and/or manager, it can take some considerable time before the new crew and mana ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
RETURN OF COAL A THREAT TO EUROPEAN COMPANIES' ESG RATINGS - REUTERS
European companies turning to coal as an alternative to Russian gas face a hit to their environmental, social and governance ratings, leaving them ...
Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal import ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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