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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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