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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Thursday, 07 July 22
COAL INDIA'S PRODUCTION SETS RECORD INCREASE OF 29% YOY AT 36 MT IN Q1FY23 - IIFL SECURITIES
Coal India Limited (CIL) has ended April-June quarter FY’23 capping a historic high of 29% yoy output growth, compared to same quarter FY&rsq ...
Wednesday, 06 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the 3rd Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, held in Hamburg on June 2022, there has been a meaningful resurgence of discussions within the ship ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
WHY ARE VLSFO PRICES SO HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN SINGAPORE? - STEVE CHRISTY, INTEGR8 FUELS
Tightness in products still trumps talks of recession
Last month we wrote about the fears of recession versus the tightness in product markets ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
ADANI ENTERPRISES LOWEST BIDDER IN COAL INDIA'S IMPORT TENDER: REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India Ltd floated its first import tender on behalf of power companies, where Adani Enterprises Ltd came out to be the lowest bidder, a report ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
CHINA POLICY KEY FOR IRON ORE OUTLOOK - ING
China’s covid lockdowns and recessionary risks hit iron ore
Iron ore prices have fallen significantly from their year-to-date high of US$ ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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