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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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