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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Friday, 16 September 22
WHEN IS A VESSEL'S INCOME EARNING CAPACITY AT RISK? 'CONTROLLED INCOME CAN BE A KEY OF SUCCESS' - MARASCO MARINE
Managing marine risks is not an easy task, which requires special knowledge and expertise on the subject per se. Customarily, big ship management c ...
Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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