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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Australian Coal Association
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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