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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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