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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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