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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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