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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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