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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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