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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
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Friday, 25 November 22
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Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
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INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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