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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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