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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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