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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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