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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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