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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
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INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
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Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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