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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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