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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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