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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
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