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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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