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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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