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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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