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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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